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Confidence Illusion
Why we overrate ourselves

Perspectives & Perception
THE THOUGHT
Waiting by the crosswalk, I felt the cool air nudge past, carrying fragments of muffled conversations. My eyes wandered, settling on faces across the street. A man checked his watch, as if time owed him an explanation. A woman adjusted her bag, her steps hurried but deliberate. A teenager tapped on a phone, the world shrinking to a screen in his palm. I found myself assembling their lives in a blink. I dismissed them as hurried, distracted, impatient.
But then, I caught the glance of someone staring back. A question stirred, sharper than my certainty had been. Were their thoughts slicing me into a story just as quickly, just as carelessly? Did they know my restlessness or judge my unease as I shifted on my feet?
The moment passed, but the thought lingered. How effortlessly we grant ourselves clarity, painting others in certainty, even as they hold a mirror through which we never dare see ourselves.
Judgments prevent us from seeing the good that lies beyond appearances
THE DIVE
The Confidence Mirage
Illusory Superiority, a term coined in psychology, captures our tendency to overestimate our abilities, qualities, and judgments compared to others. Simply put, most of us believe we are “above average”—more competent, ethical, and intelligent than the world around us. Statistically, of course, this can’t possibly be true.
This cognitive distortion is driven by our brain’s natural bias toward self-protection. It’s uncomfortable, even threatening, to imagine our inadequacies or admit that we might be unremarkable. Confidence, after all, shields us from self-doubt. Evolutionarily speaking, it likely benefited our ancestors to feel these small triumphs of perception as a survival advantage. But today, Illusory Superiority influences everything from driving to global politics.
Even our moral compass isn’t immune. Studies suggest people often rate themselves as more ethical than their peers. Salespersons believe they’re better persuaders, and podcast hosts assume their episodes are far more insightful than their listener surveys suggest. The irony is glaring. If everyone thinks they’re exceptional, are any of us seeing clearly?
But this illusion isn’t all bad. It can boost confidence and ambition, encouraging risks we might otherwise avoid. However, unchecked, it creates blind spots, distancing us from reality and each other.
The question becomes not whether you’re subject to this illusion—but where in your life it might deepen or distort. What mirrors have you trusted unquestioningly? And what might you see if you dare to tilt them another way?
THE TOOLKIT
Book: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman — Explore the quirks of cognitive bias, including how you unknowingly overrate yourself.
TED Talk: Why incompetent people think they're amazing by David Dunning — Unpack the fascinating science of why we misjudge our competencies.
Podcast: Hidden Brain by Shankar Vedantam — Engaging episodes provide practical insights into our most pervasive biases.
Article: Illusory Superiority Explained by Beyond UX Design
Learn how overconfidence impacts industries and personal decisions, with actionable strategies to counteract it.
THE PRACTICE
Seeing Ourselves, Afresh
If we tend to overestimate our abilities, how can we step outside the illusion and recalibrate? What might happen if we invited honesty into how we see ourselves and others? Here are a couple of ways to begin:
Try asking someone you trust for a single piece of feedback. Keep it small, manageable. “What’s one thing I could improve upon?” Approach their response with curiosity, not defensiveness. Allow the discomfort, too. It’s a gift to see ourselves through someone else’s eyes, unsettling though it may feel.
Or turn inward. Pick one belief you hold tight about your strengths. Hold that lens for a day. Ask yourself, “What if I’m just okay at this?” Lean into what surfaces—just as an exploration. You may feel resistance, or maybe relief. Either way, you’ve opened the door to introspection.
Let’s peek behind the curtain and question what feels unshakable. Let’s step out of the certainty that locks us in. Learning where our perceptions falter it’s freedom. It’s the beginning of genuine growth, deeper empathy, and kinder connection—with the strangers we judge, with the people we love, and with the person we are.
The next time you find yourself spinning stories at the crosswalk, pause. See yourself in the passerby—not above, not below, but as equally human, unfinished, and worthy of grace.