Missing Chapters

Why safe planes tell half the story

March 24, 2025 • Read Time: 4 minutes

THE THOUGHT

Lately, I've been exploring the writing process of authors I admire. The more I write, the more curious I become about how thoughts turn into words.

Looking into Agatha Christie—one of my favorite authors—I discovered her publicly analyzed notebooks. They're chaotic, filled with crossed-out pages, abandoned twists, and margin notes. Her messy drafts reminded me that polished success conceals countless invisible edits. How often do we overlook the chaos behind the success we admire?

The allure of success casts a long shadow over unspoken stumbles. What about chapters never published, or talented names never known? How would our view of success shift if we consistently saw the full picture?

❝

Beware of advice from the successful.

Barnaby James ​
THE DEEP DIVE

Unseen Stories Behind Success

Inspiring success stories fuel our dreams but can dangerously distort reality. This distortion has a name: survivorship bias. It's the cognitive shortcut that leads us to focus only on winners.

The classic example comes from World War II.

Statistician Abraham Wald noticed engineers reinforcing bombers where bullet holes were most common. Wald realized this was backward: returning planes showed damage only where survival was possible. The fatal vulnerabilities were hidden—on aircraft that never returned.

His insight saved countless lives, highlighting how narrow focus blinds us to what matters most.

Survivorship bias encourages overly optimistic decisions, as we mistakenly believe success is common, predictable, or straightforward. The stories we notice shape our expectations, but they're often incomplete:

  • Startups: Around 70–90% of startups fail, yet success stories dominate headlines, creating unrealistic expectations (Harvard Business Review).

  • Education and Careers: Only 27% of college graduates strongly agree their education effectively prepared them for their careers, yet prestigious alumni successes overshadow this reality (Gallup-Purdue Index Report).

Understanding this bias recalibrates our expectations, reminding us that failure often reflects hidden stories rather than inadequacy. Recognizing this can helps us embrace failure more realistically and compassionately.

THE TOOLKIT

  • Book: Black Box Thinking by Matthew Syed — Reveals the hidden value of failure on the path to success.

  • Film: "Moneyball" (2011) – Illustrates how looking beyond visible success can lead to breakthroughs.

  • Podcast: "Survivorship Bias" by The Cognitive Bias Podcast — A concise look at how focusing only on successes distorts decisions.​

  • Article: "Survivor Bias: You're Looking at the Wrong Holes!" by My Job Here Is Done — Highlights why analyzing failures provides essential balance.

THE PRACTICE

Behind the Curtain

This week, let’s experiment by zooming out to see the full picture. When encountering success stories, let’s ask ourselves, "What's missing here?" If we look closely at remarkable successes, we often uncover countless failures:

  • MrBeast produced videos for about five years before his YouTube breakthrough.

  • Stephen King's first novel, Carrie, was rejected by publishers more than 30 times.

  • J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter manuscript was turned down by 12 publishers.

  • Colonel Sanders faced over 1,000 rejections before finally franchising KFC.

  • Thomas Edison tested nearly 10,000 materials before perfecting the light bulb.

  • Vincent van Gogh sold just one painting during his lifetime, despite creating hundreds.

Let's create our own personal "failure resume." By documenting experiences that didn't go as planned and noting their lessons, we normalize failure as essential to growth and shift our focus toward resilience.

Much like admiring a writer’s finished masterpiece without knowing the discarded drafts, we often overlook hidden failures. Genius isn't only in what's published, but also hidden within the pages we'll never read.