- On Subtext
- Posts
- Shark vs. Lightning
Shark vs. Lightning
Why our minds misjudge risk
THE THOUGHT
How likely are you to be killed by a vending machine?
About 2 to 4 people die each year from vending machines tipping over. Even more surprising: this makes vending machines roughly as deadly as roller coasters, hot-air balloons, and bungee jumping. Does your mind categorize these things at the same risk level? Mine certainly doesn't.
A few months ago, while heading out on a long-awaited vacation, we hesitated before boarding the plane. Vivid stories of recent airplane incidents flooded our minds—even though statistically, flying is far safer per trip than driving, and certainly safer per use than approaching a vending machine!
Why do our minds jump to these distorted conclusions? What makes fear feel so convincing, even when facts suggest otherwise?
What the human being is best at doing is interpreting new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.
THE DIVE
The Trap of Easy Information
Identified by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, the Availability Heuristic describes our tendency to judge likelihood based on how easily examples come to mind—regardless of their actual frequency. We consistently overestimate the likelihood of dramatic events because they're memorable, not because they're common.
Our brains naturally prioritize vivid, recent, or emotionally charged events. Media amplifies this, making rare but dramatic occurrences—like plane crashes—feel more common than statistically riskier events, such as car accidents. Similarly, hearing about a lottery winner convinces us winning is plausible, ignoring millions of unnoticed losses.
This cognitive shortcut influences more than fear. It shapes choices around health, finances, careers, and relationships. Consider widely publicized startup success stories: frequent exposure creates the illusion that success is common, prompting overly optimistic decisions and hiding the true risks involved.
Recognizing this bias can transform our perspective. By consciously questioning easily recalled examples and balancing them against factual evidence, we clarify our thinking and reduce distortion in our judgments.
Ultimately, the Availability Heuristic reminds us: what's vivid isn't necessarily true, and what's memorable isn't necessarily common. Genuine understanding emerges when we deliberately look beyond what's easily recalled.
THE TOOLKIT
Article: "The Availability Heuristic and Decision Making" by Verywell Mind — Explains clearly how easily recalled examples impact our choices.
Video: "How the Availability Heuristic Misleads Us" by Veritasium — Clear, engaging examples illustrating this bias in daily life.
Book: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman — Explores how cognitive shortcuts shape our thinking.
Song: "Ironic" by Alanis Morissette — Playfully illustrates how memorable events feel more common than they truly are.
Film: "Jaws" (1975) — Made rare shark attacks seem common, vividly influencing perceptions of ocean danger.
THE PRACTICE
Checking Our Mental Shortcuts
This week, let's experiment by questioning the first thing that comes to mind. When we make judgments or feel anxiety about something, let's pause and ask ourselves, "Is this perception accurate, or simply the easiest example to recall?"
When we sense hesitation about a certain risk—travel, investing, or daily habits—let's seek actual statistics and evidence instead of relying on recent headlines or memories. Observing how our perceptions shift when we consciously balance easy memories with factual context can lead to clearer, calmer, and wiser choices.
Through ongoing questioning of what’s immediately accessible in our minds, we open ourselves to more balanced, realistic views, freeing our thinking from the trap of easy, misleading information.
Shark attacks seem common due to dramatic media coverage, yet statistically, we're about 2,400 times more likely to be struck by lightning.